By Nicholas Pinter and David Conrad
In a turbulent year for US disaster management, changes that seemed unthinkable a few months ago are now coming to pass. California leaders should be planning proactive responses now.
The California Flood Future Panel is now assessing potential impacts of federal changes to US disaster management, particularly considering proposed changes or elimination of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The Panel’s initial report discussed recent “frog in the kettle” shifts – “Changes to NFIP and FEMA that seemed unlikely in February became plausible by [June], only to be announced as de facto policy since then.”
Recent news from Washington, DC suggests that boiled frog is now on the menu.
In September, the Flood Future Panel presented three tiered scenarios meant to span a range of disruptions to current national disaster management programs. The Panel’s worst-case scenario focused on the FEMA Review Council’s rhetoric to “abolish” FEMA. The Panel considered this outcome highly unlikely because of broad and bipartisan support in Congress for FEMA, albeit with modest reforms. On Sept. 3, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee moved forward the Fixing Emergency Management for Americans Act by a Committee vote of 57-3. Nonetheless, political appointees steering the Review Council seem fixed on its original mission – “It’s not a secret that under Secretary Noem and Acting Administrator Richardson, FEMA, as it is today, will no longer exist” (Bloomberg).
In recent weeks, the NFIP has joined FEMA in the crosshairs of the Review Council and the Administration. NFIP was established in 1968 in response to spiraling disaster costs and the virtual disappearance of private flood insurance in the US. Today, NFIP is much more than an insurance program; it is part of an integrated public-private partnership to limit flood damages and to manage and steer the nation away from unwise and costly floodplain development.
Similar to FEMA, experts and Congressional leaders recognize that NFIP needs to be updated and reformed, with several NFIP reform bills already circulating. Instead – as predicted in this blog – NFIP was allowed to lapse on Sept. 30, coincident with the federal budget impasse. Since then, thousands of mortgage closings per day have been held up by the inability of buyers to secure new flood policies. More sweepingly, insider voices within the Administration’s FEMA review process suggest that NFIP is also being targeted for effective elimination. The American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA), which represents companies with “over 80 percent of the private flood insurance business in the U.S.,” reports that at a Sept. 3, 2025 meeting, the FEMA Review Council focused on privatizing the NFIP. This push to privatize the NFIP originated as a policy recommendation of Project 2025, but the recent push seems linked to the Oct. 1, 2025 Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Neptune Insurance Holdings, coincident with the current NFIP lapse.
Neptune is the most vocal of a range of insurers now assessing the market for private flood insurance policies in the US. Neptune has asserted that private insurers are “ready and better prepared” than the NFIP to assess and price flood risk in the US (Neptune). In contrast, APCIA provided a counterpoint to Neptune’s assertions – “This viewpoint is not shared by APCIA members, nor does it reflect [current] market realities.” On the contrary, APCIA warns that impacts of privatizing NFIP “would create a significant political and market shock.”
Beyond even its worst-case scenario, the Flood Future Panel identified a next-level threat to federal disaster response in the US:
“Historically, federal disaster declarations and the resulting flow of assistance have been largely apolitical. The plight of disaster victims has outweighed regional or partisan disagreements.”
Earlier this year, such a shift seemed unthinkable – a bright line in sound governance and humanitarian principles that could not be crossed. Today, there is growing evidence that this line is already behind us. Engineering News Record reported that on Oct. 23, President Trump approved major disaster declarations for three red states (Alaska, Nebraska, North Dakota), while denying requests following similar or greater disasters in four blue states (Illinois, Vermont, Maryland and Wisconsin). CNN has linked the apparent political bias in FEMA awards to social-media statements from the White House – “Trump himself faces criticism for politicizing disaster aid – repeatedly posting on Truth Social about sending millions to states that supported him.”
The task of the California Flood Future Panel is to apprise California leaders of potential impacts of changing federal approaches to US disaster management. Disaster managers and political leaders nationwide should be aware that changes that seemed unthinkable just months – or even weeks – ago now seem increasingly plausible. We recommend that California and other states find the bandwidth to identify solutions now, rather than being caught unprepared by potentially transformative shifts in the US disaster-management landscape.
About the Authors
Nicholas Pinter is the Roy J. Shlemon Professor of Applied Geoscience and Associate Director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California Davis. Prof. Pinter and his students study earth-surface processes, including coastal geomorphology and geodynamics as well as river systems, flood risk management, and adaptation to climate-driven changes. Prof. Pinter leads the World Water at UC Davis initiative and is the Co-Chair of the Securing California’s Flood Future panel.
David Conrad is based in Washington D.C. and serves as Senior Water Resources Policy Advisor for the Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM). He helps lead ASFPM’s engagement on federal legislation, flood insurance reform, disaster-funding and floodplain-management policy across multiple jurisdictions. He works at the nexus of Congress, federal agencies, and state/local floodplain-management stakeholders.
Further Reading
American Property Casualty Insurance Association, October 17, 2025.
Pinter, N., 2025. Don’t Let a Shutdown Wash Away U.S. Flood Protection. California Water Blog.Pinter, N., C. Kousky, D. Conrad, C. Fugate, M. Ghilarducci, A. Neal, A. Serra-Llobet, and N. Watkins, 2025. Securing California’s Flood Future. [Policy White Paper], U.C. Davis.
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