Author Archives: jaylund

About jaylund

Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Director, Center for Watershed Sciences University of California - Davis

Adjusting past hydrology for changes in climate

by Jay Lund Segal’s Law: “Someone with one watch knows what time it is. Someone with two watches is never sure.”  Time is certain, but its estimation and measurement are uncertain, yet we are not in total ignorance. Many water … Continue reading

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The Big California Drought Stories of 2021

by Jay Lund Happy New Water Year!  October 1, 2021 is the beginning of the 2022 water year in California, the traditional beginning of California’s “wet season”, such as it will be. Although there are many fine and interesting stories … Continue reading

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Could California weather a mega-drought?

By Jay Lund “Mega-drought” has become a frightful “thing” in public and media discussions.  In the past 1,200 years, California had two droughts lasting 120-200 years, “megadroughts” by any standard. Could the state’s water resources continue to supply enough water … Continue reading

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Lessons from Three Decades of Evolution of Cropland use in the Central Valley

by José M. Rodríguez-Flores, Spencer A. Cole, Alexander Guzman, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Jay R. Lund, Daniel A. Sumner California’s Central Valley is the source of more than $30 billion of farm value. It produces more milk than any state outside California, … Continue reading

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2021 Drought in California – in one page

by Jay Lund Droughts and this drought in California California has more hydrologic variability than any state in the US, meaning that we have more drought and flood years per average year than any other state.  This is a problem, … Continue reading

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Living with non-native fishes in California requires using the right words

by Peter Moyle Everywhere you go in California, people live in landscapes where non-native species are conspicuous:  European grasses turning the hills golden, earthworms tilling our garden soil, exotic trees providing shade, bullfrogs jumping into backyard ponds, starlings making tight … Continue reading

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The California Water Model: Resilience through Failure

by Nicholas Pinter, Jay Lund, Peter Moyle This is a slightly-edited re-posting from May 5, 2019. A review of 170 years of water-related successes in California suggests that most successes can be traced directly to past mistakes.  California’s highly variable … Continue reading

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California’s Missing Forecast Flows in Spring 2021 – Challenges for seasonal flow forecasting

by John Abatzoglou, Anna Rallings, Leigh Bernacchi, Joshua Viers, Josué Medellín-Azuara California’s 2021 water outlook became grimmer this spring as the state did not get fabulous February or miracle March precipitation. Unsurprisingly, spring streamflow forecasts from snowfed basins in the … Continue reading

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California isn’t running out of water; it’s running out of cheap water

by Wyatt Arnold A California water myth which becomes especially pernicious in droughts is that California is “running out of water” (Hanak et al. 2009). Viewing California’s supply and demand pressures in terms of fixed water requirements perpetuates this myth … Continue reading

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California isn’t running out of water; it’s running out of cheap water

by Wyatt Arnold A California water myth which becomes especially pernicious in droughts is that California is “running out of water” (Hanak et al. 2009). Viewing California’s supply and demand pressures in terms of fixed water requirements perpetuates this myth … Continue reading

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